THE CRISIS BEFORE THE CRISIS

The Crisis Before the Crisis
What the VA Is Teaching Us About Prevention
One of the most underreported success stories in veteran services is happening right now.

​While homelessness across the United States increased in 2024, veteran homelessness declined by approximately 7.5%, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).

That did not happen by accident.

It happened because organizations across the veteran support ecosystem are increasingly focused on identifying risk before a crisis becomes visible.

For years, homelessness programs were largely designed to respond after housing had already been lost. Today, the conversation is evolving. The question is no longer simply how to help a veteran once they become homeless. The question is whether we can recognize the warning signs early enough to prevent homelessness from occurring in the first place.

Looking for Risk Before Housing Is Lost
The VA has invested heavily in shifting from crisis response to early detection.
According to a 2025 VA Office of Inspector General audit, the Veterans Health Administration screened more than 2.4 million veterans between January and June of 2024 using its Homelessness Screening Clinical Reminder.

During that six-month period, 31,149 veterans were identified as homeless or at risk of homelessness.

​Think about what that means.
The VA was not waiting for veterans to lose housing.
The VA was actively looking for signs that a veteran's stability may be at risk.
The goal was simple: identify potential problems early enough to connect veterans with support before housing is lost.
That distinction may be one of the most important lessons in modern veteran services.

What Researchers Are Discovering
This shift toward prevention is now being reinforced by emerging research.
A 2026 study analyzing healthcare and social data from approximately 4.27 million veterans found that incorporating social and behavioral information significantly improved the ability to identify veterans at elevated risk for future homelessness.

Researchers were not claiming that homelessness can be predicted with certainty.
Instead, they reached a different conclusion.

Social and behavioral indicators can help identify elevated risk long before a housing crisis occurs.
Other veteran-focused research has reached similar findings. Studies examining homelessness risk among veterans have identified factors such as depression, PTSD, and trauma exposure as important risk indicators that may appear well before housing is lost.

The emerging lesson is straightforward:
Homelessness may not be the first sign of a crisis.
It may be the last.

The Warning Signs Before the Warning Sign
The most important takeaway from both VA prevention efforts and recent research may not be about housing at all.
It may be about learning to recognize vulnerability before it becomes visible.
Financial strain.
Transportation challenges.
Behavioral health concerns.
Housing insecurity.

Reduced engagement with support systems.
These factors do not guarantee a future crisis.

But they may signal increasing risk.
This reality helps explain why the VA continues to invest in homelessness screening, peer specialist programs, staff education, and Motivational Interviewing techniques designed to strengthen engagement before a crisis escalates.
Recognizing risk is only the first step.
Acting on it is what matters.

A Lesson Beyond Housing
At the Medic Now Foundation, this research resonates because it reinforces a broader lesson that extends beyond homelessness.

Major challenges are often preceded by smaller signs of instability.

In healthcare, those signs may appear differently.
A delayed prescription.
A missed appointment.
A transportation barrier.
An out-of-pocket expense that interrupts care.
A patient who begins disengaging from treatment.
Each event may seem minor in isolation.

Yet each may represent an opportunity for intervention before a larger problem develops.

The most important lesson emerging from the VA's work is that successful prevention begins long before a veteran loses housing.

The earlier instability is recognized, the greater the opportunity to respond before consequences become more severe.

The Crisis Before the Crisis
The most important lesson emerging from the VA's homelessness prevention efforts may not be about housing.
It may be about prevention itself.

By the time a veteran loses housing, the warning signs may have already been present for weeks or months.
The opportunity for intervention may have already existed.

The question facing healthcare providers, veteran service organizations, policymakers, and communities is becoming increasingly clear:

Can we learn to recognize vulnerability before the crisis becomes visible?

Because if we can, we may not simply become better at responding to homelessness.

We may become better at preventing it.

Sources

• U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), 2024 Point-in-Time Count
• U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)
• VA Office of Inspector General, Audit of Homeless Screening Clinical Reminder Process (2025)
• Predicting Veteran Homelessness Using Electronic Health Records and Social Determinants of Health Data (2026)
• Massachusetts General Hospital / Harvard veteran homelessness risk research
• National Center on Homelessness Among Veterans (NCHAV)